banner - chrisbeales.net
Daily Minimum Temperature Changes in August

Daily Minimum Temperature Changes in August

Similar to the maximums, average minimum temperatures increase through time: but under the low scenario, there is a noticeable slowing after about the 2040s; and, under the high scenario, and they accelerate after about the same period. By the 2080s, the probability band for the high scenario is much wider and flatter than the low. Averages for night temperatures could reach over 20ºC under the high scenario. Spatially, you can see that temperatures increase towards the south-east of England. August 2080 temperature curves are very slightly wider than for the June-August Summer season but they are skewed more towards lower temperature changes. The change in temperature of the coldest night is likely to be approximately: approx 1.5ºC warmer under the low scenario and approx 2.5ºC under the high scenario.

Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily minimum temperatures for August:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 12.2ºC and 14.6ºC. This would be between 1.2ºC and 3.6ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 12.3ºC and 15.4ºC. This would be between 1.3ºC and 4.3ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily minimum temperatures for August:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 12.5ºC and 15.4ºC. This would be between 1.5ºC and 4.4ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 13.4ºC and 18.1ºC. This would be between 2.4ºC and 7.1ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Probability range

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2050s

August Daily Minimum temperatures in the 2050s

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios, showing Change temperatures in the 2080s (compared to 1961-90 period average)

August Daily Minimum temperatures in the 2080s

Time and space

Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the Low emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%. Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the High emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%.
Daily Minimum temperature for August through time under the Low emissions scenario Daily Minimum temperature for August through time under the High emissions scenario
Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the Low emission scenario Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the High emission scenario
Map of daily Minimum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the Low emissions scenario (at 50% probability) Map of daily Minimum temperature for August, in the 2080s, under the High emissions scenario (at 50% probability)

Coldest night

Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.

Summer seasonal probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Summer seasonal coldest day probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s

Return to Temperatures in Reading page

Please notice that all of the maps and graphs are copyright © UK Climate Projections 2009

[xhtml][css]© Chris Beales 2006-10[info][top]